The market expects that the European Central Bank will continue to stabilize interest rates. At the same time, due to the confrontation with the Italian budget, the European Central Crude Oil Trade Work in New YorkBank will raise interest rates for the first time or postpone it until 2020. Earlier, the European Central Bank Draghi said that the economic slowdown and the increase in inflation may be slower than expected, so the euro has short-term downside risks.
As long-term futures show supply risks, short-term prices fluctuate due to changes in US inventories. The New York 0 month crude oil futures contract changed little this week. A previous industry report showed an unexpected increase in inventories. Oil prices have flipped between rising and falling in the past two trading days. At the same time, Brent crude oil futures were at a futures premium during the same period.
More importantly, as mentioned in the previous CNPC article, OPEC and Russia have jointly reduced production, but Russia is reducing production on a voluntary basis. At present, the United States is about to annex such a large market. Russia cannot stand by and let the United States sit back and reap the profits. Therefore, Russia There is a high probability that it will withdraw from production cuts to compete with the United States for the crude oil supply gap. After losing the Russian helper, is it necessary for OPEC to continue to cut production? I am afraid that even if it persists, the effect will be minimal.
The acquisition means an amazing development by the Canadian government led by Trudeau-nationalizing the country's most high-profile infrastructure projects until a new operator is found. Previously, the Trans-Mountain Oil Pipeline project has been plagued by legal uncertainty, as well as increasing protests from environmental organizations and British Columbia.
According to sources, US officials visited India last month and discussed the issue of conditional immunity. Since Iran is India’s third-largest crude oil supplier, India has stated that it cannot completely cut off the import of Iranian crude oil, so it has tried to seek exemption from the United States. It is reported that India will reduce Iran's crude oil imports by 50% in exchange for the exemption from the United States. The United States can respond to this as early as next month. After persuading allies Japan and South Korea to impose sanctions on Iran, the United States found it difficult to let some European countries also impose sanctions on Iran. The boycott of these countries has caused the United States to gradually consider exemptions to individual countries, because it believes that even a drastic cut in crude oil exports will cause serious damage to Iran’s economy.
In general, this storm that was set off by the United States in the Middle East may continue to raging in a short period of time, especially the iCrude Oil Trade Work in New Yorkmpact on the crude oil market is extremely huge. The oil price has dropped to 65 US dollars now. There is really no change in the country’s growth. I am afraid that $60 may not be the end of this round of oil price decline. This June may become a turning point for crude oil prices this year.
Compared with April, the daily output of Iran’s oil and condensate fell by 0 million barrels, a drop of 9% as shown in the figure below. April is the last month Trump announced that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement. On October 8, analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a report that Iranian oil exports may fall by 2 million barrels per day.
If oil prices continue to rise, Trump is likely to release part of his oil reserves in September or October before the midterm elections to keep oil prices down. Moreover, Trump has already ordered a ban on the import of Iranian crude oil. By then, many countries will no longer import Iranian crude oil, and the United States will also resume sanctions on Iran. The U.S. Congress has authorized the sale of 0 million barrels of oil as early as October, and a government spending bill before Congress may increase this figure by another 4 million barrels. However, Trump has an emergency authorization to release up to 10 million barrels of oil to the market.