With the sharp drop in internElectronic crude oil priceational oil prices, expectations of domestic refined oil prices have gradually increased. As international crude oil prices fell under pressure, the rate of change once exceeded 5%, and the rate of change of crude oil continued to decline within the negative range. In other words, the rate of change of international crude oil has declined, and the decline in domestic refined oil prices has also expanded. As of the 5th working day of the current price adjustment cycle, the rate of change in crude oil was minus 05%, corresponding to an oil price drop of about 295 yuan/ton. There are still 5 working days before the window of refined oil price adjustment opens. It is expected that the drop in refined oil prices is expected to exceed RMB 00/ton at 24:00 on the 2nd.
As major oil-producing countries rescued the market, North American oil continued to reduce production, and speculative funds entered the market to buy bottoms, international oil prices began to rise in mid-February, with a cumulative increase of over 90% at one time, not only breaking through the floor price of $40, but also breaking through 50 The dollar mark.
If OPEC decides to increase production by less than 700,000 barrels on June 22, it will help stabilize oil prices and have a relatively limited impact on the market; if the resolution maintains the agreement on production reductions, then oil prices may rise further; if the increase in production exceeds 700,000 barrels, short-term effects Oil prices are relatively bearish. However, in the peak consumption season, coupled with high cracking profits, the price downside is expected to be limited. It is still recommended that after the OPEC resolution is promulgated, do more on the dips. The reference point for entry is SC809 contract 440-450 yuan/barrel, WTI July contract 6-64 yuan/barrel, Brent August contract 72-7 yuan/barrel.
Hedge funds and other companies are increasing their bargaining chips on crude oil options, reaching record levels. If the Brent crude oil contract in February reaches US$90 at the end of 0, the 200,000 barrels worth of futures contracts currently held by traders will be greatly rewarded. At the same time, the record number of 4,000 US crude oil contracts currently held will reach $85 per barrel by mid-June.
Today, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Kabi said at a press conference: Qatar has decided to withdraw from OPEC member countries from January 209. He said that he had informed OPEC of this decision before the press conference.
Blame OPEC. Earlier, Trump issued a tweet that OPEC, the monopoly organization, must pay attention to the fact that gasoline prices are still rising, and they are not doing enough at present. The United States is deElectronic crude oil pricefending their members, but they have allowed oil prices to rise. The effort must be in both directions. of. Reduce prices now! He accused OPEC of artificially raising oil prices.
Since Japan, Japan and South Korea are important oil importing countries, these three countries have 65% of Asia's oil refining capacity. If the regional tensions further intensify, it may prompt relevant countries to increase their strategic oil reserves, thereby pushing up crude oil prices; Tensions evolve into continuous conflicts, which will interfere with the crude oil imports of China, Japan and South Korea, curb demand and suppress oil prices.
Corresponding to this is the continuous surge in US crude oil production. At present, the US crude oil production has reached 0.7 million barrels per day. There is little suspense that it exceeded Russia’s current production of 0 million barrels per day in 208. It is expected that this output will be expected by the end of 209. Reached 700,000 barrels per day.
The price of crude oil has both pros and cons to the economy. When oil prices rise sharply, it will increase fuel costs and reduce consumer spending in the overall economy. But when the cost of crude oil falls too much, it will drag down the economic growth of oil-producing countries.